Regional elections in Madeira 2025 | CESOP's accurate projection

The CESOP - Universidade Católica projection for RTP, on the day of the Elections for the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira, gave the PSD between 41 and 46 per cent of the votes (21 to 24 deputies), placing it on the threshold of an absolute majority.

For the first time, the JPP comes second with 18% to 22% of the vote (9 to 12 deputies), while the PS gets between 14% and 18% of the vote (7 to 10 deputies).  Next comes Chega, with 4 to 7 per cent of the vote (2 to 4 MPs) and CDS with 1 to 4 per cent of the vote (0 to 4 MPs).  IL has between 1 and 4 per cent of the vote (0 to 2 MPs) and gives PAN and CDU between 1 and 3 per cent of the vote (0 to 1 MP). According to this projection, the BE has 1 to 2 per cent of the vote (0 to 1 MP).

This poll was carried out by the Centre for Studies and Opinion Polls of the Universidade Católica Portuguesa for RTP on 23 March 2025. The target universe is made up of voters in the election for the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. Fifteen parishes in the Autonomous Region of Madeira were selected in order to ensure that the average electoral results of the last elections in that group of parishes (weighted by the electoral weight of each parish) were less than 1 percentage point away from the results of the five most voted candidates in each election.

Respondents were randomly selected as they left their polling stations and asked to cast a ballot in a simulated ballot box by a specialised team of 68 interviewers. A total of 12831 valid surveys were obtained. The response rate was 70 per cent.

According to the Secretary General of the Ministry of Internal Administration, 142,960 voters out of 255,380 registered voted in these elections, with the official count of the 54 parishes finalised at 21:30. The PSD won the election with 43.43 per cent of the vote (23 deputies), the JPP won 21.05 per cent of the vote (11 deputies), the PS won 15.64 per cent of the vote (8 deputies), Chega won 5.47 per cent of the vote (3 deputies) and the CDS-PP and IL elected 1 deputy, respectively, with 3 per cent of the vote and 2.17 per cent of the vote.

João António, director of CESOP and head of political polling at the Universidade Católica, commented on the results in the special broadcast Regional Elections 2025 - Election Night - on RTP 3 and RTP Madeira.

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